HC XXVII – Sweet 16 update

With the conclusion of the Sweet 16 here are the current standings:

1. Knight         578 points with 10 players left

2. Tonsmeire   518 points with 4 players left

3. Gannon       489 points with 6 players left

4. Lampazzi    486 points with 5 players left

5. Zucker        384 points with 1 player left

At the end of Round 2 it was clear that this was a three man race.  At this point, it would appear that the three man race has turned into a one man race.  Let’s look at the reasons why:

Tonsmeire is 60 points behind but has 6 less players.  His only hope is that Duke goes to the title game and that Zion drops at least 30/game the rest of the way.  He is guaranteed to lose Zion or Nick Ward in the next game but Ward is only averaging 7 pts a game so obviously he wants Duke to win and thereby knock out two Spartans for Knight.  Though, Knight’s two Spartans are averaging 22 pts combined per game so far.  Tons has two Gonzaga bulldogs, but Knight also has a bulldog, so there’s some coverage.  Tons’ best case is Duke/Gonzaga final four but that means he loses half of that in a title game. 

Gannon is 89 points behind but has 4 less players.  He is also hoping for Duke to go to the title game and especially that Cam Reddish plays.  He has two blue devils and one spartan so is guaranteed to lose players in the next game.  Both he and Tons are rooting for Duke to advance their stronger players and knock out two Saprtans for Knight.  He also has UVA and Kentucky but so does Knight, which gives Knight coverage.  His other wildcard is Auburn but that guy is averaging about 15/game and Ter loses either him or his UK guy in the next round.

Knight:  He could get decimated in the E8 in terms of body count.  If I’m looking at it right this could be the worst case scenario in terms of lose players:

UVA loses to Purdue: 2 wahoos out, Edwards thruTexas Tech loses to Gonzaga: 2 red raiders out, Perkins thruKentucky loses to Auburn: 2 guys out, Ter moves a Tiger thru but drops a Wildcat. MSU loses to Duke: 2 spartans out, Ter and Tons move their Duke guys thru

That would leave Knight with 1 Bulldog and 1 Boilermaker.  He could go from 10 to 2 guys  by tomorrow evening.  If that scenario played out, Tons would have 3 guys, Ter would have 3 guys.  But Knight should be able to add to his lead in the E8 games while those guys are getting knocked out which means in a matchup of similar available body counts, Tons and Ter would have to overcome probably a 75 to 100 point lead minimum over 3 games.  That’s the absolute worst case for Knight but if the games don’t go against him and he gets more than 2 guys thru then this thing is absolutely over.

Knight won’t like to hear this and so I won’t say it on the record but we all know how this ends…

Also, thru the S16 in 1997, Tonsmeire had 539 points, Knight currently has 578 points.  Tons had 7 guys in the E8, Knight has 10…..I won’t be so bold as to say Knight breaks that record but it is absolutely in play as of now.