The 2018 Hemcher Cup Preview Guide


March 2018

The Hemcher Cup XXVI Preview Guide

THE CUP-FATHER

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

My credit good enough to buy you out?

Buy me out?

Your franchise. The league. The Lampazzi franchise wants to buy you out.

The Lampazzi family wants to buy me out? No, I buy you out, you don’t buy me out.

Chris, your team hasn’t won a title in two years.

You think I’m skimming points of the top?

You’re unlucky.

You goddam 3rd tier franchises really make me laugh.  I do you a favor and take Tonsmeire in after year one because you lost an original member franchise and you try to push me out!

You took in Tonsmeire because your league couldn’t function with just four teams and the Zucker family guaranteed his annual dues. Now we’re talking business, let’s talk business.

Yeah, let’s talk business, AJ. First of all, you’re all done. The Lampazzi franchise don’t even have that kind of muscle anymore.  You’re getting passed over by every other franchise in this league.  Inaugural champion? Nobody cares about that but you. What do you think is going on here? You think you can come to my player pool league and take over? I talked to Draft Kings – I can make a deal with them, and still keep my franchise!

Is that why you slapped Team Tonsmeire around in public?

I got a league to run. I gotta kick asses sometimes to make it run right. We had a little argument, Tons and me, so I had to straighten him out.

You straightened out the all-time single season scoring record holder?

He was drafting Arizona Wildcats two at a time! Other franchises couldn’t get a wildcat before the 12th round! What’s the matter with you?

I leave on the Northeast Regional for Connecticut tomorrow, think about a price.

Sonofabitch! Do you know who I am? I’m Chris Knight I made that trophy when you were still trying to dance with the hot chick and bring her back to Pleasure Drive!

 


 

With that attempt at Hemcher / Hollywood fusion behind us, let’s move forward with this year’s preview…

 

2017 Review

Before we look ahead to HC XXVI, it is always prudent to remind ourselves of what happened during the prior year’s competition.

In 2017 Team Gannon took claim to their sixth Hemcher Cup Championship, further cementing their place as the 2nd most successful franchise in league history.  They did this in grand style by not only going from worst to first over the last two years, but also by leading the 2017 contest wire to wire.  They jumped out to a 27-point lead in round one and methodically increased that lead over the rest of the tournament to a 53-point championship margin even though they spotted the rest of the league the championship game as they placed no players into the title game between North Carolina and Gonzaga. Though it was a steady build, Team Gannon really buried everyone in the Sweet 16, when they put up 163pts from just 8 players.  That Sweet 16 performance by Team Gannon was more points than a couple of teams managed to put up in Round 1 or Round 2 with 13 or 14 players.  It wasn’t a record setting Sweet 16 but it did give Team Gannon the breathing room they needed to be able to withstand not having any players in the title game.

It’s also worth noting that even though Team Gannon went from worst to first in 2017, doing so was not uncommon to the Hemcher Cup.  In fact, including Team Gannon, the last three champions have all gone worst to first as Team Knight and Team Zucker both accomplished this same feat in 2015 and 2016.   Will that trend of worst to first continue into 2018?

If you are thinking of betting the farm on last year’s Dog of the Dow, so to speak, then Team Poli would be your dog.

 

2018 Hemcher Cup Predictions

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

You know you might think about taking Jesus Christ as your savior instead of fooling around with all this stuff.

Jesus, I like him very much, but he no help with curveball.

You trying to say Jesus Christ can’t hit a curveball?

Pedro Cerrano & Eddie Harris – “Major League”

 

SIXTH PLACE: TEAM POLI

Last title: 2006

Current title drought: 11 years

Most recent five-year averages: Points: 504, Draft Position:  4.2, Finish: 4.2

For those of you that actually read and remember these preview guides from year to year, you may remember that Team Poli was projected to win the championship in last year’s guide.   Unfortunately for this guide and its impeccable reputation of being the foremost authority on the Hemcher Cup, Team Poli let us down, he let us down bigly.  Not only didn’t he hit that curveball and win but he finished dead last, 226 points out of first place.  When you see how far out of first place he finished, you must be thinking that he must have lost lots of players early, quite to the contrary however, Team Poli actually had the 2nd most games played with 45, which is 4 more games played than the 2017 Champion, Team Gannon.  The problem with Team Poli was that his tournament PPG scoring average was only 10.3 while Team Gannon put up 16.8 PPG.  This marked the 3rd consecutive tournament for Team Poli owning the lowest PPG average which has coincided with him finishing in 4th, 5th, and 6th place.   Team Poli needs to figure out how to get more production from his team, we don’t know how, but if the rum and cigars aren’t working, how about reaching out to JC?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I got news for you Mr. Brown, you haven’t heard the last of me. You may think I’m shit now, but someday you’re gonna be sorry you cut me. I’m gonna catch on somewhere else and every time that I pitch against you I’m gonna stick it up your fuckin’ ass! [throws baseball against locker]

Good! I like that kind of spirit in a player. The only problem is I didn’t cut you.

What?

I think someone’s been having some fun with you.

Rick Vaughn & Lou Brown “Major League

 

FIFTH PLACE: TEAM GANNON

Last title: 2017

Current title drought: 0 years

Most recent five-year averages: Points: 574, Draft Position:  3.8, Finish: 2.6

Two years ago, we picked Team Gannon to win the Cup and they rewarded that confidence with a last place finish.  Perhaps slightly due to spite, but mostly due to the quality analytics that you are accustomed to from the Hemcher Cup Preview Guide, last year picked them to finish 5th.  How did they respond to that prediction?  Well, they stuck it straight up our (expletive deleted) last year by finishing 1st.  As documented in the opening paragraph of this year’s guide, Team Gannon got out to a lead in Round #1 and never looked back until they cut down the nets for their 6th title.  We tend to think that Team Gannon pinned the 2017 Hemcher Cup Preview Guide to their club house bulletin board last year as motivation for their team.  How else do you explain that Sweet 16 performance by guys like De’Aaron Fox (39 pts, 33 combined in the first two rounds), KeVaughn Allen (35 pts, 11 combined in the first two rounds), and don’t even get us started on Sindarius Thornwell.  Much like Team Gannon’s beloved Philadelphia Eagles, it’s not wise to dismiss their chances of winning a title just because of a little adversity.  Knowing that you should never count out Team Gannon, then why in the world would we pick them to finish so poorly in 2018?  Simple, they drew the dreaded #4 drafting position.  No matter how many Halloween dog masks Team Gannon wears this year in response to being picked so low, there’s no avoiding the curse of the 4th draft spot.  Maybe if Team Poli embraces JC, then Team Gannon can try to use Jobu and his voodoo magic to break the curse of the 4th draft spot.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

l’d sooner get Munsoned out here in the middle of nowhere…than lose face in front of my friends.               

What did you say?            

I don’t want to lose face–       

No, before that.      

I said l’d sooner get Munsoned out here…in the middle of nowhere.          

Munsoned?  What the hell is that?      

You know. Munsoned.  To be up a creek without a paddle. To have the world in the palm of your hand and then to blow it. It’s a figure of speech.

Roy Munson & Ishmael Boorg – “Kingpin” 

 

FOURTH PLACE: TEAM TONSMEIRE

Last title 2011

Current title drought: 6 years.

Most recent five-year averages: Points: 513, Draft Position:  2.2, Finish: 4.0

When Team Gannon won last year’s cup, not only did he win his sixth cup but he successfully ended the 2nd longest current title drought in the Hemcher Cup and passed that honor on to Team Tonsmeire.  Team Tonsmeire’s title drought now stands at six years which puts him three years ahead of Team Lampazzi (3 years) and five years short of Team Poli (11 years).  Team Tonsmeire continues to be somewhat of an enigma in the world of Hemcher Cup.  He has three titles and the all-time single tournament points scored record but he’s failed to finish above 3rd place since his last title in 2011.  A couple of years ago, we speculated that perhaps he left his championship blue print behind in one of the various continents that he has lived on and has never been able to recreate it.  Perhaps that’s it or perhaps there’s another explanation.  Over the last few year’s much like Roy Munson, Team Tonsmeire has had their family name transformed into a figure of speech (i.e. “oh man, he Tonsmeire’d that”).  Perhaps on draft night, Team Tons accidently “Tonsmeire’s” his real quality picks to another chat thread and inadvertently sends his “do not draft” picks to the Hemcher Cup podium.  I’m pretty sure last year with his 5th round pick he initially chose “Fig Newton from Pathmark U” before quickly laughing it off and picking Semi Ojeleye from SMU.  No matter how you look at it, both were bad picks.  SMU out of the AAC?  I think Fig Newton would have been a more satisfying pick, undoubtedly more delicious.  The last time Team Tonsmeire won a cup he picked out of the 2nd draft spot, which is the same position as this year.  But it’s also worth noting that he has also picked 2nd three other times since that title, so it’s certainly not a lock.  Here’s the most important thing to consider for Team Tons this year and I want to you to pay close attention…diapers, OJ and bread…whoops we Tonsmeire’d that!  Hey, it could be worse, at least you didn’t get Munsoned!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It’s a flower pot with the dirt in it.

Actually, the real gift is what’s planted in the soil. The bulb of a Jerusalem tulip.
Which I was told is one of the rarest and most beautiful flowers in existence.

Oh, right, right, the Jerusalem–From the “Jerusales tulipesias” genus. Yes, yes.

Anyway, yeah, the guy said with regular watering, it should bloom in about six months, so–

Oh, we’ll look forward to that, Greg.

Jack Byrnes & Greg Focker – “Meet the Parents”

 

THIRD PLACE: TEAM LAMPAZZI

Last title: 2014

Current title drought: 3 years

Most recent five-year averages: Points: 563, Draft Position:  2.6, Finish: 3.0

 

1993, 2000, 2014

3rd, 3rd, 3rd

When it comes to projecting the 2018 finish for Team Lampazzi you need to look no further than the two sets of number above.  This franchise has three championships, which were won in 1993, 2000, and 2014.  A cursory glance at that pattern shows you that there’s an exponential gap between titles for this team.  After the first championship, it took them 7 years to win their second and then 14 to win their third so based on that pattern we don’t expect to project them to the top spot until the year 2035.  Knowing that they won’t win again for another 17 years or so, that just means we need to pick them somewhere between 2nd and 6th, and looking at the last three years of finishing in 3rd place, we’ll go ahead and assume that the pattern continues for at least one more year.  So just sit back and relax and wait nearly two more decades for Team Lampazzi to win another title…Oh we’ll look forward to that, Greg.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit smoking.

Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit drinking.

Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit amphetamines.

Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue.

Steve McCroskey – “Airplane”

 

SECOND PLACE: TEAM KNIGHT

Last title: 2015

Current title drought: 2 years

Most recent five-year averages: Points: 570, Draft Position:  4.6, Finish: 2.6

For many teams in the Hemcher Cup, a third-place finish can be rationalized as a solid year.  You didn’t win but you were probably within shouting distance of the cup.  But that’s a statement “many teams” could make but not Team Knight.  As has been documented in many previous preview guides before, you can’t begin to discuss the history of the Hemcher Cup without talking about the success of Team Knight.  Ten titles, only team to win B2B titles (twice), most titles won in a four-year span (3), never going more than three years without a title, yada, yada, yada.  But with such accomplishments comes higher expectations.   So, when Team Knight finishes 3rd, there is cause for alarm.  And to get to 3rd place last year, Team Knight had to rev up their engines and outscore both Team Tonsmeire and Team Lampazzi by almost 100 pts over the last three rounds to force a three-way tie for 3rd.  Perhaps that gives Team Knight encouragement for this year, but we think there may be a major flaw in KnightMetrics ™.  Looking at the 2017 squad we see that Team Knight entered into a very risky strategy by drafting three sets of teammates across Gonzaga, Louisville and Duke.  He hit on Gonzaga taking them to the title game but the five guys from Louisville and Duke only got him 10 combined games and 137 points. Five Guys is great for burgers, but not so great when made up of Cardinals and Blue Devils.  Talk about picking the wrong week to stop sniffing glue, why did Team Knight hitch it’s wagon to Duke and Louisville?  He picked the wrong tournament to employ such a risky strategy and if this was seriously the output of KnightMetrics ™, then surely, they need some major algorithm changes.  Unfortunately, we believe he was serious with those picks and don’t call him Shirley!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Easy, Dude.

We’re screwed now! We don’t get shit and they’re gonna kill her! We’re fucked Walter!

Dude, nothing is fucked.  Come on.  You’re being very unDude.  They’ll call back. Look she kidnapped her…

Walter Sobchak & The Dude, “The Big Lebowski”

 

FIRST PLACE: TEAM ZUCKER

Last title: 2014

Current title drought: 2 years.

Most recent five-year averages; Points: 514, Draft Position:  3.6, Finish: 4.0

Over the recorded history of the Hemcher Cup, Team Zucker has finished 1st or 2nd just five times with three championships and two second place finishes.  That doesn’t seem to be quite the resume for picking them to win this year but you need to realize that two of those high finishes have happened in the last two years.  That tells us that not only has there been a bend in the trend but that trend has been rerouted from a highway to hell to a stairway to heaven.  Also, it’s worth noting that Team Zucker is picking out of the 5th spot which is the same spot he has had over the last two years, so there seems to be a correlation between that spot and success for team Zucker of late.  Team Zucker had a strong team last year but we have to question a couple of picks that seem very un-Zucker-like in Wichita State and SMU.  Those don’t seem to profile as Team Zucker approved schools and the scoring played out against him as he only got one game (17pts) from SMU and two games (13 pts from Wichita).  Had he stayed truer to his inner Dude with what we believe are more Zucker approved schools, perhaps he could have easily made up the 53-point final deficit and joined Team Knight in the record books as the only other team to win B2B titles.  He can’t join that club this year but perhaps next year he will.  Until then, Team Zucker abides man.

 

 

As usual this guide is written for entertainment purposes only, please no wagering.

Good luck to all! And GO CATS!