Here’s where we are thru the Sweet 16 standings and guranteed knockouts for the Elite 8.
- Knight 514pts, 8 men left (with Marshall). Auto Knockout: 1 Baylor Bear or 3 UK Wildcats
- Poli 450pts, 7 men left. Auto knockout: 1 Jayhawk/Tarheel and 1 UK Wildcat or 2 Baylor Bears
- Lamp 414pts, 5 men left. Auto knockout: 1 OSU/SU
- Gannon 401pts, 3 men left, Auto knockout: None
- T [REDACTED] 395pts, 3 men left, Auto knockout: None
- Zuck 375pts, 4 men left. Auto knockout: 1 Jayhawks/Tar Heels
So it’s fairly obvious that the only one who has any shot at catching Knight is Poli. Since Knight is really at 7 men ex Marshall, he and Matt have the same amount going. Matt only trails by 64pts, but the Sweet 16 was a spot to makeup points and they actually scored the exact same amount. A pivotal game for them is Baylor/UK. Knight would gladly trade his 1 Baylor guy for 3 Wildcats getting thru to the Final Four. Poli’s double Qunicy’s on Baylor aren’t exactly setting the world on fire with points scored, only 55 combined while his Kentucky guy has scored 40. It’s essentially a push for Poli between those two schools in terms of production. I think for Poli to have a shot he needs the following: Florida, Kansas, Baylor and OSU in the Final Four. That would mean Knight loses 3 Kentucky Wildcats, 3 Tarheels and is left with 1 Buckeye and 1 Baylor Bear which would give him coverage on three of Poli’s 5 guys. And then Matt would have to outscore him by 65pts the rest of the way. That’s Knight’s worst case scenario and even then he probably holds on to win considering Poli’s Kansas and Florida guy who Knight doesn’t have covered are combining for 10pts a game so far. Knight’s Baylor guy is negating Poli’s two Bears but Poli’s OSU guy is way outscoring Knights’ guy. So that’s worst case scenario for Knight with a final four of Flordia, Kansas, Baylor and OSU. But in that scenario I still think he holds on.
If Knight gets a final four including UNC, UK and OSU, the scoring record is in Jeopardy I believe.
That’s just one man’s opinion.